Roads of the Future: Electrification & Automation

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For as long as many of us can remember, our roads have been occupied with combustion engine vehicles, but over the course of the next decade and beyond, this is all set to change. With the 2030 diesel ban looming and the 2035 hybrid ban coming soon after that, roads the world over are poised to look very different. In fact, according to a survey by JP Morgan, by 2025, cars with an electric engine will account for just under a quarter of the global market, and the electric vehicle market itself will be worth over one trillion US dollars, which demonstrates just how quickly these changes are happening.

In this article, the 1st Call Windscreens team is going to be taking a closer look at all of these changes and trying to build a picture of what the driving experience might look like in the future.

The changes happening right now

With all of this talk about how electric vehicles (EVs) will dominate the roads in a few decades time, it’s easy to miss all of the changes that have been going on over the past few years.

According to IEA, in 2021, sales of plug-in EVs hit 6.7 million units. To put that into perspective, 2020 only saw sales of 3.1 million units, and 2019 before that only 2.1 million units. While we have to take into account the fact that the pandemic stifled vehicle demand across the board in 2020, huge leaps forward were made in technology that increased the range, battery life and efficiency of EVs, so this has a lot to do with the increase in popularity.

But the changes go back further still. In 2016, there were under 2 million EVs in operation globally, and by 2020, there were over 10 million. It’s clear that the trend towards EVs has been quietly building up steam for a long time, and this is only going to accelerate in the years to come.

What will happen after the 2030 ban?

Once 2030 hits, people buying new cars will have two options: purely electric vehicles and hydrogen powered vehicles. However, the second hand market for combustion engine vehicles will continue, and the same goes for hybrids. It’s worth noting though that the resale value of combustion engine vehicles will start to decrease rapidly as demand falls and petrol and diesel prices rise. Combustion engine vehicles will also become much more difficult to use throughout the country as other cities follow London in introducing ultra-low emissions zones.

Some companies, such as Porsche, are even investing heavily into research surrounding synthetic e-fuels that could allow combustion engine vehicles to run with zero emissions. While these e-fuels will be far too expensive to see widespread use, they could be a lifeline for classic car owners in decades to come.

2040 and beyond

By 2040, a decade after the ban has come into force, EVs will have most definitely become the norm. According to Morgan Stanley, EVs will hold over 70% of the global market share for road vehicles, and by 2050, this will have reached over 80%. Billions of pounds will have been invested into charging infrastructure and other on-road services for electric vehicles, allowing for a completely integrated experience.

What’s more, once the shift towards EVs has reached its natural conclusion, we will probably see a usage-based vehicle tax implemented in the UK. At the moment, the UK government raises around £35 billion each year from vehicle excise duty and the fuel duty that motorists pay at petrol stations. However, at the moment, pure EV owners pay neither of these, meaning the government will be left with a huge void financially unless the system is changed.

Automation and driverless cars

Automation is a trend that has also been building up steam alongside the EV boom, but we’re not quite at driverless vehicles just yet. According to IDC, in 2024, over 18 million vehicles will be sold with level 2 automation (level 2 automation allows the driver to take their hands off the steering wheel), and around a million vehicles will be sold with higher levels of automation.

If you’re not familiar with automation levels, here’s a quick rundown:

• 0 (No automation): At level 0, there is no automation and it is up to the driver to perform all of the driving tasks.
• 1 (Driver assistance): With level 1 automation, the driver has to control the vehicle entirely still, but some systems are in place to aid where necessary, such as adaptive cruise control.
• 2 (Partial automation): Level 2 automation still requires the driver to remain engaged with the task of driving at all times, but offers some more advanced functions. For example, Highway Driving Assist will actively accelerate, brake and steer for the driver on long roads.
• 3 (Conditional automation): The driver is still essential here, but they don’t necessarily have to monitor what’s going on in their environment at all times. However, they must be ready to take the wheel if prompted by the vehicle. So being alert is still necessary!
• High automation: A vehicle with high automation is able to carry out all driving functions, but only under certain conditions. The vehicle can still be driven by the driver if they want to take control.
• Full automation: A vehicle with full automation is able to carry out all driving functions under all conditions. The driver can still take control of the vehicle if they would like.

For perspective, Tesla’s Autopilot technology, which can handle things like steering and acceleration, is still considered level 2 automation. On the other hand, Google’s self-driving project, Waymo, which has been shuttling passengers around Phoenix for a few years now, is considered high automation.

According to IHS Markit, whilst the US will be the first market with fully autonomous vehicles on the road, China will be leading the market by 2040. Around 14 million vehicles of varying autonomy levels will be sold in China in 2040. In fact, China’s ride hailing service DiDi already has plans to manufacture and roll out over a million autonomous taxis, or “robo-taxis”, by 2030.

Conclusion

It’s safe to say, then, that the next three decades will be some of the most interesting when it comes to the development of transport technology. We’re already seeing huge leaps forward here in the UK, and this is only going to pick up speed as we approach the ban in 2030. So if you haven’t already, it’s time to get shopping for your first electric vehicle!

Here at 1st Call Windscreens, our dedicated team is already fully qualified to deal with electric vehicles and vehicles with ADAS technology, so you can be sure that we’re a future facing company that can tackle anything. If you’ve noticed a chip in your windscreen or it’s been there for a while now, give us a call and a member of our team will happily book you in.

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1st Call Windscreens

We are proud to be a leading windscreen company covering our local areas of Maidstone, Sittingbourne and the rest of Kent since 1996. Our 25+ years experience in windscreen services includes windscreen repair and replacement for cars, vans, trucks and more! Our expert technicians hold the relevant qualifications so you can rest easy knowing that your windscreen is in safe hands.